Halperin's Take: A More Empathetic Mitt (TIME)

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4 out of 5 Australians Worry about Debt; New Reality ? Owing More on Your Home Than You Own; Shocking Year for Corporate Collapses ; Merry Christmas to Those Down Under

Merry Christmas to all my Australian readers. Here is an economic roundup, with many links sent from Australian readers over the past couple weeks, especially Tony the "Brisbane Bear".

Boxing Day Sale Before Christmas?

Boxing Day is traditionally the day after Christmas. Not this year, at least for all retailers.

Tony Writes ? "Talk about desperation! We are now having the traditional Boxing day sales before Christmas. This will not make any difference in the longer run as everyone is now so accustomed to deals that any retailer who doesn?t offer substantial discounts won?t get any business. It is a whole new paradigm in retail that will eventually spread to all sectors. Businesses with high fixed costs will go broke in droves."

Please consider?Myer brings forward online ?Boxing Day? sale

December 23, 2011
The annual Boxing Day sales need a new name, it seems.

This year retail giant Myer will launch its annual post-Christmas shopping bonanza two days early, on Christmas Eve, for online customers.

Myer spokesman Steven Carey said more than 1100 new items would be available for purchase on the Myer website from 6pm tomorrow ? the first time the company had launched its stocktake sale early online.

While some customers were expected to stick to the annual tradition of queueing outside stores on Monday to snap up a bargain, Mr Carey said more and more people were choosing to shop from the comfort of their own home.

??We?ve got to cater to both the online and the bricks-and-mortar customer,?? Mr Carey said.

It comes as electronics giant Harvey Norman, which has long complained about the rise of international online shopping, began selling computer games this week via a website in Ireland that lets Australian consumers avoid GST.

Chairman Gerry Harvey said the company had launched the initiative reluctantly. "We are not doing this with a great deal of joy. We have been able to do this for a long time, we have held off," he said. "But you get to a point where you can?t hold off."

Mr Carey said if Myer?s online experiment this year was successful, it could become an annual event.

Treasurer Swan takes a potshot at ?whinger? Retailer Gerry Harvey

Tony writes ?"The Treasurer and our biggest retailer are having a slanging match right on Christmas. The party is over and everyone is getting very, very agitated as they try to deal with the new reality."

Please consider?Swan takes a potshot at ?whinger? Gerry Harvey

December 23, 2011
Treasurer Wayne Swan says it?s just not Christmas if retailer Gerry Harvey isn?t whingeing about soft sales.

The co-founder of Harvey Norman has been highly critical of the rise of international online shopping, which he says is threatening Australian jobs and businesses.

Mr Swan defended the GST threshold on goods bought offshore, saying a Productivity Commission report into the issue found it wasn?t the cause of retailers? woes.

"I can?t remember a Christmas where Gerry Harvey wasn?t whingeing," he told ABC Radio today.

"Back when we put the original stimulus package in place he spent a lot of time whingeing about that, but ultimately it did lift consumption in Australia."

Mr Harvey responded, saying he wasn?t a whinger and just wanted to protect the whole retail sector, not only his business.

"To call me a whinger when you are poll-driven, that?s just an illusion," he told ABC Radio.

He told Mr Swan: "I?ve been telling you and your government for a long time ? you have a major problem: the GST. You thought it was more important to think about the votes you were going to get."

Retailers Rocked as Debt Crisis Spreads

Tony writes ? "Hi Mish. I have been saying for ages that we have cost structures set to boom time conditions with no way of lowering costs.

Panic is setting in. Prominent broker Charlie Aitken has warned that the industry has a cost base tailored for a boom year such as 2007, when volumes are more in line with 2002."

Please consider?Retailers rocked as debt crisis spreads

December 20, 2011
THE nation?s shoppers have firmly closed their wallets amid fears of a full-blown debt contagion in Europe, while Billabong shares were smashed by 44 per cent yesterday after the iconic surfwear company released a shock profit downgrade.?

The Billabong malaise extended to other discretionary retail stocks such as David Jones and JB Hi-Fi, as more than $30 billion was shed from the value of local equities.

4 out of 5 Australians Worry about Debt

The Sydney Morning Herald reports?Most Australians worried about debt

December 19, 2011
Four out of five Australians are worried about their ability to meet future debt repayments, a survey shows.

The biannual survey by data intelligence company Veda, found 82 per cent were worried about their ability to meet debt repayments in the future, up from 75 per cent a year ago.

The survey also found that one in five Australians was struggling to repay their current credit commitments.

However, about 29 per cent of this sub group were considering applying for more credit in the next six months, the survey found.

"It is concerning that there are people struggling with their current debt levels but are turning to more credit as the answer, potentially edging closer to a debt spiral," Veda senior adviser Matthew Strassbourg said in a statement.

Here is a stat straight from the Twilight Zone: 82% are concerned about debt yet 29% of those worried want more credit.

New Reality ? Owing More Than You Own

The Age reports on the "New Reality"?Owing More on Your Home Than You Own

Rising property values have been an article of faith in the housing market for a generation of Australians who borrowed big as real estate prices marched ever upward.

While the percentage of home owners with so-called negative equity remains tiny ? about one in fifty of the 3 million households with mortgages ? the number may well swell in 2012 if home prices extend their declines as some analysts expect.

The emergence of a sector of the housing market ??under water?? on their mortgages may hurt an already fragile real estate market. Any forced sales would obviously dent individual household wealth but further drops in home prices would deter investors from buying residential properties.

Tony writes "Hey Mish, Negative equity is a new buzz word slowly entering the lexicon."

Yes indeed. For starters, I highly doubt that only 1-in-50 are underwater. Regardless, I expect that number to be 40-in-50 of those who bought or did a substantial cash-out refi in the last four years. I do not know what percentage that is, but I do know it is far more than 2%.

Shocking Year for Corporate Collapses?

Tony comments "Hey Mish, panic is setting in as retail chains go broke daily. The banks are warning that next year will be very tough. It is a vicious cycle and it is gathering speed as panic spreads and people stop spending"

SmartCompany reports?Tools chain Glenfords placed in voluntary administration

The shocking year for Australian corporate collapses has continued, with discount tools chain Glenfords now up for sale after being placed in voluntary administration last week.

The sale of the chain comes as the do-it-yourself sector has reached a major transformation point, with market leading hardware chain Bunnings now battling the Woolworths-backed Masters chain.

Analysts have said mid-tier and smaller operators will slowly be pushed out of the market as Bunnings and Masters stores dominate areas once controlled by SMEs.

The construction industry has been one of the worst hit this year ? it suffers the highest number of insolvency appointments out of any sector. Glenfords has likely suffered alongside that drop in demand.

Talent Two and Billabong Shares Smashed

Tony writes ? "The interesting downgrade was Talent2, these guys have been very successful for a long time but it seems white collar jobs are drying up fast"

The Australian reports?No ?ho ho? from Billabong, Talent Two

December 19, 2011
THERE?S no ho ho ho on the bourse today, as hopes for a consumer-led recovery evaporate as quickly as snow on an outback nativity set.?

Talent Two and Billabong ? smashed by 50 per cent and 37 per cent respectively ? tell two parts of the dismal story.

Talent Two, a leading recruiter, reported current-half earnings wouldn?t come within cooee of expectations because of reduced hiring caused by ?fears of European contagion and the volatility of financial markets?.

Talent Two?s full-year EBITDA is expected to come in at less than half the expected $30m or so, but the shares probably received an extra dollop of punishment because the ?market update? was issued at beer-o-clock on Friday.

Talent Two focuses on white-collar hiring, especially in the financial services sector where fearful workers rue their lack of skill at driving mining earthmovers or sealing S bends with O rings. It doesn?t take a (still employed) rocket scientist to work out scared workers won?t be buying electronic gizmos or surfwear, hence JB Hi-Fi?s surprise downgrade last week (also after market close) and the ever-erratic Billabong?s shocker this morning.

Retail Malaise Spreads Like Wildfire

The Age Reports?Myer to close or shrink stores as retail malaise bites

Last week, failed apparel retailer Fletcher Jones said it would close a third of its stores immediately and shed 61 staff as administrators try to revive and sell the company.

Myer stores at Tuggeranong in the Australian Capital Territory and at Forest Hill in Melbourne?s east will close early next year. Others outlets will be shrunk when the shopping centres in which they operate are redeveloped.

Real estate stockbroking analysts suggested the Myer stores at Dandenong Plaza and possibly in Wollongong, south of Sydney, could also be closed.

It is not just the stores that are shrinking. Myer has already reduced the range of white goods, electrical items, DVDs and CDs it offers, and is also reducing the number and range of location devices such as GPSs in response to changed sales conditions.

Harvey Norman is following suit, shrinking the space devoted to electrical goods in response to a plummet in prices, which means the retailer has to sell many more television sets, for example, to make the same money.

Tony writes ?

Hey Mish.

Myer is probably our oldest and most respected retail department store. (I would guess Sears or Bloomingdale?s would be US equivalents) they are in real trouble and are proposing closing stores and downsizing others.

Retail business models are broken (as are 1000?s of other business models in various sectors) and reality is sinking in. It will be very ugly when people realise that there is literally no way out.

Wages are way, way too high and working conditions are way too generous and most all other overheads are way too costly. Throw in terrible industrial relations laws that this Socialist government has introduced and you have a recipe for disaster.

Spotlight on Australia

For those who think Australia can do no wrong and Australia is the place to be, need to take another look at Australian housing, Australian retail, and also the slowdown in China.

I contend things are going to get very nasty for those down under.??

Thanks for the Links ? Merry Christmas

I get links from "Brisbane Bear" nearly every day and links from Bran in Spain nearly every day.?

Indeed, I get links from all over the world every day and I appreciate them. Sometimes they stack up like this before I use them and sometimes I never use them. But I do appreciate them regardless.?

Many times I get 30 or more emails on a story gone viral. I Typically do not respond to such articles or use them.

If you do send a link, my most common response is simply "thanks". I get hundreds of emails a day and often cannot say much more than that.?

If I never respond (not once, but repetitively), I cannot use the stories you send, you are consistently late, or I have already seen them. Most often I will not use or respond to conspiracy theories.

Finally, to those who email every day, please note I may say "thanks" only occasionally.

Merry Christmas Australia (they are nearly day ahead of Chicago), and to everyone else too!?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Source: http://www.philstockworld.com/2011/12/24/4-out-of-5-australians-worry-about-debt-new-reality-owing-more-on-your-home-than-you-own-shocking-year-for-corporate-collapses-merry-christmas-to-those-down-under/

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Wedding Stories: The Most Heartfelt Wedding News Of 2011

Cystic fibrosis patient Kevin Dwyer never thought that he'd be able to finish a grueling 26-mile race -- or live long enough to propose to his girlfriend. But in November, he did. Despite his life-threatening chronic disease, Dwyer ran the NYC Marathon with his girlfriend -- and proposed at the finish-line. She said yes, of course! (Skip to 3:40 to watch the tear-jerking proposal.)

Source: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/24/wedding-stories-the-most-heartfelt_n_1164122.html

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[Q] Android market question

I just got a Nook tablet and will probably root it, depending on the answer I get here.

I have a login to the Android market but I have no Android device registered because the Nook is my first. However, I don't see the Nook as a device in the list of devices.

Once I've rooted the device and logged onto Android market using it, will the rooted Nook be recognized as a valid device? It hasn't been thus far.

Otherwise how do you get an Android device to be associated with your Android market account?

Thanks

Source: http://forum.xda-developers.com/showthread.php?t=1408369&goto=newpost

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Traveling safely

A Christian Science perspective.

Last spring a friend was moving from Wisconsin to Arizona, and I agreed to help her drive. It was a road trip to remember as we motored west in a big moving truck with her car on a trailer behind. We had little experience driving such a rig, so our motto became ?Always forward!?

Skip to next paragraph

Whether I?m driving cross-country, traveling in a foreign country, or staying at home, I find great strength, inspiration, and forward mental direction in my study of the Christian Science Bible Lesson. One morning during the trip, I studied this passage from Psalms: ?[H]e shall give his angels charge over thee, to keep thee in all thy ways? (91:11).

The idea of God?s angels having ?charge? over me was an arresting idea and one that applied to our trip. Mary Baker Eddy, the founder of Christian Science, described angels in this way: ?Angels are not etherealized human beings, evolving animal qualities in their wings; but they are celestial visitants, flying on spiritual, not material, pinions. Angels are pure thoughts from God ?? (?Science and Health with Key to the Scriptures,? p. 298). I felt myself agreeing: Of course God?s angels of comfort and insight are with me wherever I go.

This nugget of inspiration was needed as my friend and I were on the road. As we drove along, the radio reported that tornadoes had been leveling many cities and towns along our route.

Later that afternoon, when we stopped at a gas station to fill the tank, the tornado sirens went off and folks from all over the area swarmed to the station. We jostled into the walk-in cooler, the securest structure on site. As we huddled, the storm grew louder.

At first my thoughts recalled a radio report of a similar situation a few days before. I was actually thinking, Could this be the end for us?

But then I remembered the scriptural promise from that morning ? God?s angels had ?charge? over me, over the situation, and over everything. This brought a mental peace despite the outside storm.?

In the Bible, the burning bush was a symbol to Moses of inner peace; it was on fire but ?not consumed." This clarity of thought helped Moses respond to God?s call to lead the Israelites out of slavery.

These days we don?t come across many burning bushes, but it?s easy to be consumed by news reports, other people?s opinions, and our own fears. Praying or listening to ?angel messages? brings God into the equation or, better yet, dissolves fear by knowing that no one is outside God?s perpetual care. Looking to God in times of need is not foolish but totally reliable because it puts God in the driver?s seat.

As I recalled the words from Psalms, I felt I had a spiritual anchor. I looked around the walk-in cooler. I was grateful for the man who gave me a blanket to stay warm, the woman who was sharing weather updates that she received by text message, people?s humor, and unconditional love. I could see other people acting with their best selves, showing goodness and unselfishness to complete strangers.

After 40 minutes, the storm passed, and we were all able to return to our cars. You can imagine we were relieved to find the moving truck, my friend?s car, and her belongings all in place, without any damage.

That experience has revitalized my concept of God. At times, I?d thought that loving God was a stagnant or abstract thing. Now I can see that trust in God brings safety, clarity, hope, and endurance in perilous moments.

As you journey home this winter holiday, be open to feeling the divine presence of God?s angels advocating for you and guiding you in tangible ways.

To receive Christian Science perspectives daily or weekly in your inbox,?sign up today.

Source: http://rss.csmonitor.com/~r/feeds/csm/~3/UIT0mHCLYjg/Traveling-safely

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Iraq PM tells Kurds to hand over Sunni VP (AP)

BAGHDAD ? Iraq's Shiite prime minister told Kurdish authorities Wednesday to hand over the Sunni vice president, who fled to the semiautonomous region to escape an arrest warrant on charges he ran hit squads targeting government officials.

Then a Kurdish presidential spokesman ruled out handing Tariq al-Hashemi over to Baghdad, turning up the heat under what has become the worst Iraqi political crisis in years.

The charges, leveled a day after the last American troops left Iraq, have opened up a new round of the Shiite-Sunni sectarian tensions of the type that pushed the country to the brink of civil war just a few years ago.

Al-Hashemi, the country's highest ranking Sunni political figure, said Tuesday the allegations by his longtime rival, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, are fabricated and politically motivated. He accused al-Maliki of concentrating power in his hands and torpedoing national reconciliation between Sunnis and Shiites.

"I do not allow myself and others to bargain over Iraqi blood," al-Maliki said in his first public comments on the warrant. He said Iraq is a unified county, and the Kurdish authorities should hand over al-Hashemi to the Iraqi justice system. "If they will not hand him over or let him flee or escape, this will lead to problems," the premier said.

There has been speculation that al-Hashemi may try to flee the country to Turkey, which shares a border with the northern Kurdish region.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu offered his country's help in resolving the Iraqi political crisis, but he was cool to the idea of hosting al-Hashemi. "As an Iraqi statesman it would be more correct for him to remain in Iraq," he said.

The Sunni minority dominated Iraq under Saddam Hussein until he was ousted by the U.S.-led invasion in 2003. The Shiites have held power ever since, and many Sunnis feel the Shiite-led government is determined to keep the them from ever regaining positions of power.

The charges raised suspicions that al-Maliki ordered the arrest of al-Hashemi as part of a campaign to consolidate his hold on power out of fear that Sunnis inside and outside of Iraq are plotting against him. The conflict has sharpened the divisions in what is shaping up to be one of the most serious political confrontations in Iraq in years.

Al-Hashemi denied charges he paid his bodyguards to kill government officials during the heyday of Iraq's Sunni insurgency. Most of the accusations date back to the height of the internal war in 2006 and 2007, when neighbors turned on neighbors and whole sections of Baghdad were expunged of one Muslim sect or the other.

Al-Hashemi fled to the Kurdish region on Sunday, before the arrest warrant was announced and before purported confessions from his bodyguards aired on Iraqi television Monday evening. On Sunday he was barred from leaving the country.

Al-Maliki effectively runs the Interior Ministry, where the charges originated. Al-Hashemi's Sunni-backed party, Iraqiya, which shares power in al-Maliki's government, has repeatedly accused the prime minister of hoarding power and last weekend boycotted parliament because al-Maliki refused to give up control over key posts such as the defense and interior ministries. The prime minister has not appointed permanent ministers of defense or interior since he came to office a year ago.

Al-Hashemi has taken refuge in the Kurdish region, which is part of Iraq but has its own security forces. The Iraqi army and national police do not operate there.

As long as the Kurdish officials allow him to stay there, he is effectively immune from prosecution in Baghdad. The Kurds, who have been trying to work out a solution to the crisis, are also wary of al-Maliki's perceived authoritarian streak. But they have also clashed with Sunni politicians from Iraqiya over the future of disputed areas in northern Iraq claimed by both Baghdad and the Kurds.

For now at least, the Kurds appear to be siding with al-Hashemi in the increasing cycle of accusations and counter-accusations that has become a daily spectacle in Iraq.

Fuad Hussain, a spokesman for Massoud Barzani, the president of the three provinces that make up the Kurdish region, said al-Hashemi is a guest of the president, and handing him over to Baghdad is "not possible."

The charges have thrown Iraq into crisis just days after the last U.S. troops left the country and ended a nearly nine-year war.

Vice President Joe Biden called both al-Maliki and Osama al-Nujaifi, the speaker of the Iraqi Council of Representatives, late Tuesday. He stressed to al-Maliki the "urgent need" for him to meet with leaders of other political blocs to help resolve the crisis.

Al-Maliki is also pushing for a vote of no confidence against the Sunni Deputy Prime Minister, Saleh al-Mutlaq, also a member of Iraqiya.

Al-Hashemi addressed the charges against him at a news conference in the northern city of Irbil on Tuesday. He said the case was "fabricated" to embarrass him and Iraqiya.

When asked whether al-Hashemi could get a fair trial in Iraq considering that the confessions have already aired on television, al-Maliki defended the treatment of the vice president.

"We gave the dictator Saddam a fair trial, and we will guarantee a fair trial for al-Hashemi," he said.

Al-Maliki also threatened to appoint new Cabinet ministers if the ministers from Iraqiya do not attend Cabinet sessions. He said that Iraqiya would be able to keep those positions and nominate new people from within their ranks.

Iraqiya has not indicated whether it will pull out of the government, but al-Maliki seemed prepared for that eventuality. He did not address Iraqiya directly, but during his opening remarks raised the possibility of having a simple majority government.

Now Iraq has a unity government that includes all the major factions, including Iraqiya and al-Maliki's State of Law alliance. The unwieldy government makes it difficult to make decisions, but supporters say it lessens the risk of violence that could result if large segments of the population are cut out of power.

___

Associated Press writers Sinan Salaheddin and Rebecca Santana in Baghdad and Yahya Barzanji in Sulaimaniyah contributed to this report.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/iraq/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111221/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iraq

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Latino Salt Lake County Mayor Candidate Wants To Rep Everyone

Ross Romero has lived a set of several different lives in his hometown of Salt Lake City, Utah. Recently, he told NewsTaco that his varied experience in his hometown ?? from growing up as the son of a single mother on a teacher?s salary, to being a student at the? University of Utah, to living on the more affluent side of town and working in a bank ?makes him the perfect candidate for Salt Lake County Mayor in 2012. The job is similar to what county administrators do in other places, he told us.

Of course, another reason Romero, an attorney, decided to run for this seat?had to do with redistricting. He told us that as Senate Minority Leader in Utah, he was told that the Democrats were going to be redistricted out by one seat. Despite fighting to keep the seat, he ultimately asked whether anyone wanted to retire or seek another office; when no one volunteered, and in order to avoid Democratic infighting, Romero took it upon himself as Minority Leader to give up his seat.

However, Romero is generally an upbeat individual who told us that he considers Salt Lake County Mayor to be a higher office, enabling him to become a bigger leader for the Democratic Party in the state of Utah. The election will be competitive he told us, noting that there is no majority party in the county, but he?s sure that he?s the best candidate to bring together what is Utah?s most diverse county in order for everyone there to prosper.

?I think I am the candidate that best relates to all of our counties? differences. Salt Lake County is the most diverse county in Utah, it has tremendous wealth and tremendous struggle. I have worked in the private sector have a good understanding of the business community I have a good understanding about not overextending our indebtedness and I?m focused on education,? he said. Additionally, after school programs, parks and recreation, support services, nutrition, transportation, pollution, health and obesity, and fiscal responsibility are at the top of Romero?s list of issues for Salt Lake County.

One really interesting thing about Romero is that he really loves Utah. To that end he told us, he frequently advocates for a variety of causes in Salt Lake County and the state of Utah, but often finds himself advocating or Utah as a community when he travels outside the state. In his view, anything you do to ?add value? for the majority, also adds value for minorities, he said.

?I always consider myself a champion for Utah?s diverse voices in Utah, but I take that same challenge to be a champion for the LDS community outside of Utah which is a minority,? he told us.

That said, Romero always recognizes that he?s a Catholic Hispanic Democrat in Utah, which brings him back to his original point about Salt Lake County Mayor:? ?I?m running as someone who cares about my community, and I believe I have a good set of skills for the job.?

Ultimately, Romero sees his bid for Salt Lake County Mayor as one way to give back to the hometown that he loves. After watching his mother work in public schools for almost 40 years, he told us her example taught him to give back to your community. As Salt Lake County Mayor Romero tells us that he hopes to make a difference by being able to give back to everyone in Salt Lake County, not just a majority or a minority community.

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Newstaco/~3/icuaLoqEgZI/

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